The Pride Cycle In Our Day...

I came across an article written by David Galland through my free newsletter subscription from John Mauldin. John is a bit of an economist and investment advisor and I was referred to his site by a stock broker I am acquainted with. John has good tidbits now and again so I thought I'd share some information from this week's newsletter. The article is about David's 1997 interview with Neil Howe, a historian/Washington DC-based economist and demographer, concerning Howe's book "The Fourth Turning".

Howe has a theory that every 20 or 30 years our society goes through a turning. A turning comes with each new generation and there are four cyclical turnings that we go through as a society every 80 to 90 years. That's what made me think of the pride cycle that I was taught about in seminary; the pride cycle basically says that society goes through these periods where people are humble and then become prosperous so they then become pridefull and then get humbled through trials, and then it starts over again.

Here's what Howe's "turning" theory states:

1) Turning one - "High" - this period follows a crisis and there is a heightened sense of community and collective sense of optimism as society has just made it through a difficult and challenging time. The most recent "High" was roughly 1940 to 1960.

2) Turning two - "Awakening" - during this period there are signs of progress and prosperity everywhere. Major portions of society begins to chaff under conformity and gravitates to more individualistic pursuits. People begin to demand that their personal interests come first. There is a huge anti-establishment movement during these time periods. The most recent "Awakening" was roughly 1960 to 1980.

3) Turning three - "Unraveling" - individualism dominates this period; institutions are increasingly weak and discredited. It is a time of celebrity circuses and a tremendous amount of personal freedom and creativity. There is little sense of public purpose. The most recent "Unraveling" was roughly 1980 to 2000. (Examples include 1760's, 1850's and 1920's - can anyone say flapper?)

4) Turning four - "Crisis" - during this period seemingly insurmountable problems are addressed, society's basic institutions are torn down and rebuilt. The changes during this period involve a great deal of pain and a reduced standard of living for a large number of people, but by the time the "Crisis" subsides, society will have pretty much remade itself in ways that no one can predict at this point. According to Howe, we are in the beginning stages of this period. The last "Crisis" period was roughly 1920 to 1940. (Examples of "Crisis" times include the Revolutionary War from 1775 to 1783, the Civil War from 1861 to 1865, and the Great Depression and World War II from 1929 to 1945; I noted that there seems to be some overlapped in some of the turnings - I'm not sure that this is reconcilable other than I don't think the 20 to 30 and 80 to 90 year time frames are necessarily set-in stone; I think it is more of a pattern).

According to Howe, individuals born between 1982 and 2004 belong to a Millennial generation that will become a "Hero" generation, just like the GI Generation that coped so well with the turmoil of the Great Depression and World War II. According to Howe, we as a society have seen dramatic improvements in youth behaviors since the Millennials have come along such as huge declines in violent crime, teenage pregnancy, and the most damaging forms of drug abuse, as well as higher rates of community service and volunteering.

Here's a closer look at the "Crisis" turning:

A) Government grows powerful, and sweeping legislation is enacted.

B) While public history speeds up, personal life slows down (i.e. families will spend more time together).

C) Innovation tends to stagnate, while a few technologies will be chosen to be adopted on a large scale.

D) New laws and regulations will do less to referee a free market and more to pursue one or another national priority.

E) The authority and obligations of community will strengthen at all levels, from local to national and possibly beyond.

F) In the past, the fourth turning always resulted in the nation redefining who we are in some essential way.

G) Baby Boomers will continue to be respected for their cultural achievements, but will be increasingly ignored in the political debate.

H) There will be a growing push to rebuild the middle class.

As I mentioned the interview with Howe was in 1997 when Howe's book "The Fourth Turning" was published. Below is an excerpt from David's article:

"... an excellent case can be made the US is approaching another time of secular crisis, a Fourth Turning, with an expected due date of 2005 - seven years from now - plus or minus a few years in either direction.

The Stamp Acts catalyzed the American Revolution, the election of Lincoln catalyzed the Civil War, the Crash of '29 catalyzed the Depression/WW II era. What might precipitate the elements now floating in solution? The answer is practically any random event that's sufficiently traumatic. Any of the theses of current disaster/action novels and movies will do nicely. Perhaps the accidental or intentional release of a super plague vector. The crashing of an airliner into the Capitol during a joint session. An all-out assault on the IRS computers by an armed group - or perhaps the computers just melting down due to the Year 2000 Problem. Perhaps a financial disaster that cascades into the Greater Depression. In any of these, or a hundred other scenarios, the federal government would almost certainly act precipitously and with a heavy hand, which would bring on a whole other set of consequences.

There's no way of telling where the Crisis will lead, or how it will end. That's going to depend not only on exactly who's in control, but what they do, who they're up against, and a hundred other variables we can't even anticipate.

One thing that seems certain is that real crisis brings out strong leadership. Because of its age and size, it will come from the Boomer generation, and it will be in the mold of Roosevelt or Lincoln - both very dangerous precedents. The Boomers in elderhood will be dogmatic, harsh, puritanical, and quite willing to burn down the barn in order to destroy whatever rats they see. Admix that attitude to a time resembling the Revolution, the Civil War, or WWII, overlain with today's ethnic strife, urbanization, financial overextension, and powerful, compact new weaponry in the hands of foreign fanatics out to teach the Great Satan a lesson and it's a real witch's brew."

If what Howe said is true, then indeed we are in for more government involvement in everything and that it will be 40 or 50 years from now when we see the second turning come around again and we see a return to the celebration of individual rights.

What is the saying? Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it...